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An Athenian historian widely dubbed as the father of “scientific history”. He has also been known as the father of the school of “political realism”; son of Olorus and born in Halimous, Athens. The work for which Thucydides got famous was the recount of the fifth century BC war between Sparta and Athens in “The History of the Peloponnesian War”. He coined the theory that a rising power (Athens) will come into conflict with an already dominant power (Sparta) as the two have diametrically opposing interests that make conflict an almost certainty and war is the only outcome. Thucydides wrote on the state of Greek affairs in The History of the Peloponnesian War which describes a series of wars between Athens and Sparta that changed the balance of power in Greece. The rise of Athens spawned fears in Sparta, an already established power who subsequently started to arm itself for war. Sparta would go on to win the war but at a tremendous cost that hurt it immensely and paved the way for new powers just 30 years later. He wrote: “What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta.”
American political scientist Graham T Allison Jr. circulated this concept as “Thucydides Trap” which appeared in an article in The New York Times on April 6th, 2017, on the occasion of US President Donald Trump meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which stated, “Both major players in the region share a moral obligation to steer away from Thucydides Trap”.
Trump’s administration has increased the freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea region as a part of their dynamic force employment strategy.
The election campaign of the Donald Trump in 2016 was seen as blind hitter where he continuously portrayed China as the enemy. The dispute which could turn into skirmish was mainly South China Sea. The disputes involve both maritime boundaries and islands. Trump’s administration has increased the freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea region as a part of their dynamic force employment strategy, which flared up the tension. Though, China and United States never fought on front line despite of severe tensions in South China Sea. With all the tensions and life going, there emerges a virus in the late 2019 in China.
The virus known as COVID-19 spread widely around the globe like bushfire. The fire was dealt with, but there are no answers to deal with it, but precautions. This virus hit hard to the US economy and its western allies. According to statistics, it effects about 7-10% of economy. The global GDP hit with a wave of 3-4 trillion dollars. Business are on stand hold, airlines are stop, tourism industry got no tourists, shopping malls, cinema industry, literally everything just got paused. The loss US and its western allies bare is inversely proportional, if US and China got face to face.
The war machine of US is so spectacularly smart that US can fight in South China Sea, it can fight parallel in Middle East, can also fight in European theatre at the same time. The effect on Hippopotamus by housefly is equal to effect on economy of US if war happens. But, what COVID-19 did is unprecedented. After The Great Depression of 1929, economy got such shocks now due to virus. The virus outbreak grounded the economy that more than 16 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits. But, how China combat with virus without any prior knowledge and liberal democracies of world still got no clue, is the worry for think tanks of liberal democratic countries.
To lift the global economy, China have to make certain pattern of concessions to its western trading partners.
Can liberal democracies fight with COVID-19? The shock which economy absorb can disturb liberal democratic order and can promote the authoritarian mind set. The mindset shown by China, Saudi Arabia, GCC countries or in Singapore have proven to control pandemic as compared to liberal democracies like Spain, UK, Italy, US, France, India etc. The question arises, is Chinese model reasonably more effective than American model? President Trump at many occasions stated COVID-19 as “Chinese virus” or “Wuhan Virus” and manmade or lab made. Whether this virus is lab made, or it jumps from an animal host to human being, anything can’t be said with confidence. The displacement of economy and human lives is the confirmed outcome right now. There seem a lot of tensions and anger from US and its western allies towards China, as they held China responsible for this crisis. Does China hold the cards to cool down the anger of its major trading partner?
To lift the global economy, China have to make certain pattern of concessions to its western trading partners, like a prototype of “New Deal Era” given by Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1930s to stimulate the global economy, which result in massive boosting of economy. It has to be done and it can be done. China holds the world’s largest dollar reserves which stand at 3 trillion dollars. Virus emerges from Wuhan. China has to come forward to regulate world economy. There’s no other way around.
A contributed article by Ali Asad Sabir
